Why was the next attack delayed; A look at the emptying of the US missile stockpile

Rather than the result of a diplomatic opening, the cease-fire of US attacks on Iran in recent weeks may be rooted in a logistical reality: the drastic reduction of US precision munitions stockpiles. Recent reports from Reuters, CBS, CNN and NPR paint a picture of stockpiles reaching alarming levels after five months of war.

🔹 What has been reported

▪️ Reuters was the first media to report that the US military has used up "almost all" of its long-range precision surface-to-surface missiles; Mainly ATACMS and precision strike missiles (PrSM). Three knowledgeable sources have confirmed this data. CBS News, citing two sources with direct knowledge, confirmed the same and added that the more immediate concern is the Patriot and Todd interceptors. ▪️ CNN, citing two sources familiar with the latest inventory report, wrote that nearly eighty percent of the missiles of the THAAD system and about half of the Patriot interceptors have been consumed since the beginning of the war. According to the estimates of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, before the war, the United States had about 2,200 Patriots of two advanced versions and 452 THAAD missiles. ▪️ NPR reported that the Patriot stockpile has been reduced by about two-thirds since the start of the war. ▪️ According to the report of the Center for Strategic Studies, more than a thousand Tomahawk missiles and about 1,000 anti-missile missiles have been used, and the time to replace them is about four years.

🔹 Official narrative

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegsett has previously denied these reports, saying the stockpile is strong and will get stronger. Donald Trump also said in July that America has plenty of ammunition, although he added that he would prefer to have more. On the other hand, according to the aforementioned reports, military commanders have been warning the president for weeks about the reduction of defense reserves, and these warnings played a role in the recent decision to cancel a large-scale attack.

🔹 Analysis: Why this issue is important for Iran

The key point is that the lack of ammunition does not mean that the US is unable to continue this war. The analysis of the Center for Strategic Studies is clear: America has enough ammunition to continue the current war; The risk is of future wars and a possible confrontation with an equal rival. The reason is clear - the rate of consumption has dropped sharply after the first days, both because the US is using cheaper and more abundant weapons, and because the number of launches by Iran has decreased.

So a more accurate interpretation is that stockpile shortages lowered the escalation ceiling, not stopped the war. Washington still has the ability to strike, but the cost of each big strike has become heavier for it and this cost is included in the political calculation. For the Iranian audience, the practical meaning is that the recent interruptions are fragile and can disappear as quickly as they were created.

What has not been confirmed yet

▪️ The exact figures of the current balance of none of the systems have been officially published and all the numbers are from unknown sources or estimates of think tanks. ▪️ The exact extent of the impact of this restriction on the decision to stop the attacks is not known; Reports describe it as "part of the reason," not the only reason. The actual timing of the restoration of reserves depends on the approval of the budget, and estimates vary between one and four years.

🔹 Resources

Reuters, CBS News, CNN, NPR, CNBC, Military Times, Fox News and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report. No internal source of Iran was used in the preparation of this report.

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