Pulse Iran 24A pause that is not yet peace—five months after the war began
There has been no attack for three days and Brent oil has fallen by nearly seven percent. But this is not a ceasefire; No agreement has been signed. A look at the three pressures that made this silence.
Full text
The text as it is read in the audio file.
Five months have passed since the beginning of the war. A war that began with Donald Trump's announcement of a "major military operation" on February 28 and joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran's military, government and infrastructure facilities — the same day Ali Khamenei was killed in Tehran and replaced by Mojtaba Khamenei on March 8.
Today, however, the square is quiet. For the third day in a row, the attacks stopped, and Brent fell 6.7 percent to around $90 — after crossing the $100 mark last week. After nearly two weeks of heavy bombardment, Tehran has stopped its retaliatory attacks.
But this silence is not peace. Tehran's official tone is still aggressive: Iran says America is "stuck and helpless" in the war it started and "will inevitably pay the price". On the other hand, the US ambassador to the United Nations says that Trump gives "a little space" to the negotiations. And an Iranian official emphasizes that there is no negotiation going on.
So what is the logic of this break? Three simultaneous pressures.
First, the pressure of intermediaries. Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan and other mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire, calling on both sides to return to pre-July 9 positions "as a first step". China is also trying to resume talks with the coordination of Pakistan. An Iranian official has described the talks between Tehran and Muscat as "constructive".
Second, logistics pressure. The Wall Street Journal reported that the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Army informed the White House about the reduction in the stocks of air defense interceptors; Trump has denied this and says that US ammunition is "more than any country in the world and more than needed". This denial is a sign in itself.
Third, the pressure of the war economy. Passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to less than ten ships a day — just seven on Sunday — and Bab al-Mandab traffic has dropped to 11 after Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities. This means that even with the cessation of attacks, the commercial arteries of the region have not been opened.
And inside? Today, the dollar is trading at 188 thousand tomans with an increase of 2500 tomans; The market is clinging to political signals. In the past week, the gatherings of retirees, workers, and housing applicants have continued in various cities - and here is the shocking point: according to the Nornews news agency, one of the two agendas of the February 28 meeting in which Shamkhani and the senior commanders were killed was to follow up on the plan of "managing unrest"; The plan was prepared after the January protests and was approved by Khamenei. The second order is to investigate the possibility of an attack by the US and Israel.
Conclusion: This break is a product of a balance of weakness, not a balance of strength. The side that counts ammunition and the side that counts rials both need breathing. Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington tomorrow and says Iran is at the top of the agenda — and the real test of this unwritten truce is the meeting itself.